Much has changed during this period, with efforts over the past five years focused on building the architecture of the Paris Agreement, which was adopted at COP21 in 2015. This landmark agreement required each signatory to set carbon emission targets known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and this year`s conference is the first of its implementation period. COP26 will aim to establish the ground rules for the implementation of NDCs. Our recent report “Closing the Gap” showed that temperature increase could be limited to 1.7°C by the end of the century if G20 countries could set their 2030 targets (Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs) at 1.5°C and net zero CO2 emissions by mid-century. Basically, this scenario would result in a significant reduction in the emissions gap by 2030 and would therefore represent a real step forward in keeping 1.5°C within reach. Because low-carbon energy is at the heart of the SDS, fossil fuels are moving significantly away from their current position. Coal demand will peak very soon, around 2020. In contrast, the IEA estimates that demand for coal increased in 2017 after a two-year decline and expects demand to continue to grow for at least the next five years, unless policies and market conditions change. Another scenario mentioned in the MEPs-2021 is the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS). As a path “well below 2°C”, the SDF represents a gateway to the results of the Paris Agreement.
Like the NZE, the SDF is based on increased clean energy policies and investments that put the energy system on track for the key SDGs. In this scenario, all current net-zero emission commitments will be fully met and considerable efforts will be made to achieve short-term emission reductions; Advanced economies will achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, China by 2060 and all other countries by 2070 at the latest. Without assuming negative net emissions, this scenario is consistent with limiting the increase in global temperature to 1.65°C (with a probability of 50%). With some level of negative net emissions after 2070, the temperature increase could be reduced to 1.5°C by 2100. In fact, ESCII has hardly changed over the past three decades, suggesting that energy supply has not become “cleaner” on average over time. Although significant progress has been made in the use of renewable energy, especially solar photovoltaic and wind energy, the use of low-carbon energy has not kept pace with the growth in energy demand. This remains a crucial challenge for the energy sector, as in an IEA scenario consistent with achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement, ESCII will decrease by 22% by 2030. Heads of state and government, ministers and senior government officials are meeting in Glasgow for COP26 to continue the nearly 30-year process of implementing the multilateral climate agreement known as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The delayed actions observed in the commitment scenario result in significant and avoidable warming above 1.5°C, which would be exceeded in the 2030s. The IPCC has repeatedly confirmed the significantly increased risks to ecosystems and livelihoods, as well as the risks of crossing tipping points with warming of more than 1.5°C. The Paris Agreement`s temperature target is a goal, and emission pathways compatible with its achievement require a very high chance of limiting warming to less than 2°C while keeping 1.5°C at hand. The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR1.5) provides an assessment and mitigation measures for ways that are “as likely as not” (between 33% and 66% chance) of limiting warming to 1.5°C.
These pathways also offer a “very likely” (>90%) or higher probability of keeping warming at “well below 2°C”. In this way, emissions will decrease sharply in the 2020s and 2030s on the path to net zero CO2 by 2050 and net zero greenhouse gases by 2070. Since the WEO-2020, the SDS has also integrated the stimulus packages needed for a sustainable global recovery from Covid-19. Investments for the period 2021-2023 are therefore based on the sustainable recovery outlined in the Special Report on the World Energy Outlook. To allow for a meaningful comparison of energy factors and outcomes between scenarios, the underlying assumptions of public health and economic growth in the SDS are the same as in the STEPS. Compared to scenarios that only address the climate change goal, the SDS places more emphasis on low-carbon decentralized and modular technologies (such as solar PV and wind) as a means of achieving multiple goals. For example, there is about 50% more solar PV in this scenario than in the IEA`s previous scenarios, which focus primarily on decarbonization. On the other hand, the scenario of commitments announced by the IEA in 2030 still leaves a huge void. Our updated analysis of these new targets – in addition to all those set previously – shows that if they are achieved fully and on time, they would be sufficient to keep global temperature rise to 1.8°C by the end of the century. This is an important step: it is the first time that governments have presented targets ambitious enough to keep global warming below 2°C. The Talanoa Dialogue is divided into three questions: Where are we now? Where do we want to go? How to get there? The IEA`s full answer to these questions can be found in our first official contribution to the Talanoa Dialogue. By 2050, the IEA`s 1.8°C signaling pathway emits an average of 350 Gt more CO2 than what is observed in the IPCC`s 1.5°C signalling pathways.
This would result in a probability of more than 25% that a maximum level of warming would be greater than 2°C. This is inconsistent with the Paris Agreement`s long-term temperature target of “keeping the global average temperature rise well below 2°C. and continued efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.” IEA (2021), Global Energy Model, IEA, Paris www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-model Earlier this year, the IEA itself developed a net-zero scenario compatible with the Paris Agreement (see the blue line in the graph above), which shows that strong emission reductions are not only necessary to achieve the Paris Agreement, but are also technologically and economically feasible. Authors Matthew Gidden, Claire Fyson, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Gaurav Ganti, Bill Hare This increase in emissions reflects the strong underlying growth in energy demand, which is expected to have increased by 2.1% in 2017, twice as much as in 2016. While energy intensity – primary energy demand per unit of gross domestic product – has improved over time, this improvement slowed to 1.7% in 2017, from an average of 2.3% over the previous three years and only half the annual rate of improvement consistent with achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. At the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow, a key question is what all the new commitments made by various countries to reduce emissions mean for global warming. This is a key issue we addressed in the IEA`s recent World Energy Outlook 2021 (WEO-2021), and we continue to update this analysis. These reductions in temperature estimates for 2100 are largely the result of the announced net-zero emissions targets for 2050 and beyond.
This will still leave a huge emissions gap in 2030 and won`t be enough to keep 1.5°C within reach. The second critical factor is the carbon intensity of energy supply, which tracks CO2 emissions per unit of total primary energy supply. In 2017, the Energy Sector Carbon Intensity Index (ESCII) increased for the first time in three years, with fossil fuels accounting for more than 70% of energy demand growth. Sara Moarif, Head of the Environment and Climate Change (ECC) Unit Jinsun Lim, Energy and Environmental Policy Analyst Tom Howes, Head of the Energy and Environment Division Commentary – 29 October 2021 To achieve net zero emissions by 2050, annual investments in clean energy worldwide must more than triple to around $4 trillion per year by 2030. with 70% of the additional expenses helping to bridge the gap between the pledges announced and a 1.5C compatible course required for emergence and development. Savings. This level of investment will create millions of new jobs, significantly boost global economic growth, and achieve universal access to electricity and clean cooking worldwide by the end of the decade. Governments must mitigate the social and economic impact on individuals and communities and address issues of affordability and equity. The IEA has been addressing safety, environmental and economic issues in the energy sector, particularly climate impacts, for more than a decade.
We have outlined the technologies, investments, policies and measures needed to make the global energy system safe, reliable, affordable, but also sustainable. As an important contribution to the Talanoa Dialogue and broader follow-up efforts, the IEA will be launched on 22 September. Can publish Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2018, which presents the current state of key energy indicators, measures their current progress against what would be needed by 2030 and identifies opportunities for technological development and innovation. .